Commentary #1: The Basics

Ok chicas y chicos, the moment you've all been waiting for has arrived: I will try and give a little bit of a prospective and explanation of how thing are going down politically in Venezuela at this current moment.

As some of you may already know, there is a coming presidential election on December 3 that will decide the future of Venezuela for the next six years. The incumbent president, Hugo Chavez, is running against a group of other candidates of whom a governor from the Venezuelan state of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, poses the greatest threat to denying him a second term. The vast bulk of the support of the opposition to Chavez is behind Rosales; most of the other presidential candidates are expected to renounce their bid for the presidency and support either of these two candidates.

Chavez is expected to win the election, though Rosales' campaign has represented one of the most concerted efforts by opposition forces thus far to rally behind a politically savvy and popular candidate. Prior efforts by those not in favour of Chavez's style of government have included marches, rallies, a crippling general strike, something of a coup d'etat, it was never carried out in full nor was it successful for other reasons, and a recall referendum. All of these have failed to unseat Chavez who remains as popular as ever among working and lower-income classes of Venezuelan society.

Chavez does also command the support of some powerful financial and economic actors such as industrial banks and manufacturing companies. It is definitely not true that all the upper- and middle-classes are against him. Some are fully onboard with his umbrella plan for Venezuela, La Revolución Bolivariana. The bulk of these people and their interests however are not in align with his, if not completely behind Rosales and his plans.

In just under a month then, Venezuelans will take to the polls to either re-elect Chavez or usher Rosales into power. The mood thus far has been pensive, but not too tense yet. It was only two years ago that a second-time rejected, disputed recall petition left a handful dead and many more injured after riots in the capital. The country is certainly passionate about its politics but no one has the stomach for more blood in las calles.